Perennial darkish horses Turkiye meet real darkish horses Austria in an enthralling Euro 2024 last-16 tie on Tuesday.
Austria beat the Netherlands 3-2 to seal prime spot in Group D forward of the Oranje and event favourites France.
Turkiye, in the meantime, bounced again from a 3-0 defeat to Portugal by beating Czechia 2-1 and sealing their progress from Group F as runners-up.
These groups have landed within the kinder half of the draw, with a quarter-final in opposition to Romania or the Netherlands up for grabs.
Right here, we preview the conflict in Leipzig utilizing Opta information.
What’s anticipated?
Let’s dig straight into the Opta supercomputer’s prediction. The mannequin is forecasting an Austria win, giving Ralf Rangnick’s workforce a 48.2% probability of victory.
Turkiye have a 24.9% probability, whereas there’s a 26.8% probability of a draw, which might after all imply further time and even penalties.
This would be the first assembly in a significant event between Austria and Turkiye.
Austria have gained two of the final three encounters in all competitions (L1), together with an emphatic 6-1 victory in March of this 12 months.
In aggressive matches, nonetheless, Turkiye are unbeaten of their final 5 video games in opposition to Austria (W4 D1), protecting a clear sheet every time; that is the primary such assembly since a goalless attract a Euro 2012 qualifier in September 2011.
You possibly can actually anticipate a full-throttle encounter, although.
Rangnick’s aspect are a superb urgent unit. Solely Germany (8.8) had a decrease PPDA within the group levels than Austria (9.0), whereas they had been second for tackles (61) behind Georgia (63) and prime for fouls conceded (49).
Turkiye like to get on the entrance foot, too. Certainly, solely Portugal (5.8) and Spain (5.4) had the next non-penalty anticipated objectives whole than Turkiye (5.2) within the teams, whereas Vincenzo Montella’s aspect had been additionally third for prime turnovers (28), behind Croatia (34) and Portugal (30).
1 – Austria have completed prime of their group in a significant event (World Cup/EURO) for the primary time because the 1978 World Cup. EUROphoria. #NEDAUT #EURo2024 pic.twitter.com/uAk0IRUXRt
— OptaFranz (@OptaFranz) June 25, 2024
Ralf’s nonetheless bought it
Rangnick’s interim stint answerable for Manchester United didn’t go properly, and a few eyebrows had been raised when Bayern Munich approached him earlier this summer season.
But on the proof of Euro 2024, Rangnick has nonetheless very a lot bought it.
His workforce have been unbelievable, and had been worthy winners of Group D, scoring six objectives throughout their final two fixtures within the first spherical, and solely happening to France on account of an unlucky personal aim from Maximilian Wober.
Since Rangnick’s first sport in cost in June 2022, solely three European nations – Portugal (73%), Spain (67%) and Netherlands (64%) – have the next win proportion than Austria (60%), who’ve gained 15 of their 25 matches underneath him.
Austria have certified for the knockout levels of a significant event for less than a fourth time, additionally doing so on the 1934 and 1954 World Cups and Euro 2020, shedding 2-1 to Italy within the spherical of 16 within the latter.
So it’s hardly just like the stress is on, however given their shows thus far, there’s a feeling they’ll actually go deep on this event.
13 – Austria’s Nicolas Seiwald has made probably the most tackles by any participant at #EURO2024 thus far, and with out committing a single foul. The one participant on file (since 1980) to make extra tackles with out conceding a foul in a EUROs group stage is Philipp Lahm in 2008 (14). Clear. pic.twitter.com/x1ZLojmkZG
— OptaJoe (@OptaJoe) June 27, 2024
The youngsters are alright
Turkiye had been properly fancied at Euro 2020, however finally flopped as they crashed out within the first spherical.
That is simply the third time they’ve reached the Euros knockouts, after 2000 and 2008, reaching the semi-finals on the latter event, which, after all, was co-hosted by Austria. Nevertheless, they’ve but to win a knockout tie in 120 minutes within the competitors. They progressed previous Croatia within the quarters on penalties 16 years in the past, earlier than shedding 3-2 to Germany within the final 4.
However this new technology holds no worry.
Solely Ukraine (25 years, 281 days) had a youthful common age of their beginning XI within the group levels than Turkiye (26y 170d).
In reality, ought to Kenan Yildiz (19y 59d on the day of the sport) and Arda Guler (19y 128d on the day of the sport) begin, it will likely be simply the second time a nation has began two youngsters in a knockout stage sport on the Euros, after Hungary in opposition to Denmark in 1964 (Ferenc Bene and Zoltan Varga).
Guler could be essential, particularly when contemplating that playmaker Hakan Calhanoglu will miss this match via suspension.
Actual Madrid teen Guler is already his nation’s vivid new hope, however he might make himself a hero right here.
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Austria – Christoph Baumgartner
Baumgartner has been instantly concerned in 9 objectives in his final eight appearances for Austria (six objectives, three assists).
He scored and assisted within the group stage, turning into the primary Austrian participant to take action in a single European Championship event, and first at a significant event since Gerhard Rodax on the 1990 World Cup.
Baumgartner will likely be again enjoying on residence turf on this match, too. He plies his commerce for RB Leipzig.
Turkiye – Ferdi Kadioglu
Full-back Kadioglu created extra probabilities from open play than some other participant within the group levels (10), whereas solely Mykola Matviienko (25) and Jeremy Doku (23) recorded extra progressive carries of 10 metres or extra (22).
He’s actually a participant Austria have to maintain a detailed eye on.