The ultimate set of pre-Christmas Premier League fixtures are upon us, with Arne Slot’s Liverpool hoping to nonetheless be high of the tree come 25 December.
They go to Tottenham in Sunday’s late kick-off, shortly after their nearest rivals Chelsea go to Goodison Park to tackle Everton.
Having overwhelmed Southampton 2-1 within the EFL Cup on Wednesday, teeing up a last-four tie with Spurs for the brand new 12 months, the Reds have nonetheless solely misplaced certainly one of their 24 matches beneath Slot in all competitions – towards Nottingham Forest in September.
Victory on Sunday will guarantee Liverpool high the Premier League desk at Christmas for the primary time since 2020.
Nevertheless, the Reds have solely received the title in one of many final seven top-flight campaigns during which they’ve led the way in which at Christmas, doing so in 2019-20.
Tottenham, in the meantime, have continued to blow cold and hot, trouncing Southampton 5-0 final Sunday then edging out Manchester United by a 4-3 scoreline in an exciting EFL Cup quarter-final on Thursday. These outcomes got here on the again of a five-game winless run throughout all competitions.
With a Christmas cracker anticipated in north London, we delve into one of the best Opta details and stats surrounding the fixture.
Two loopy moments in a single loopy match between Liverpool and Spurs again in 2023
What is going to the end result be once they meet once more this Sunday? pic.twitter.com/U4bstsKu4S
— Premier League (@premierleague) December 19, 2024
What’s anticipated?
The Opta supercomputer makes Liverpool agency favourites to take all three factors on the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, assigning the guests a 52.7% probability of victory.
Throughout 10,000 pre-match simulations carried out by the Opta supercomputer, Spurs have been solely victorious in 24.6%, with 22.6% ending degree.
Given the Reds’ current outcomes towards Tottenham, Liverpool ought to journey south in assured temper. They’ve solely misplaced two of their final 23 Premier League conferences with Spurs, successful 15 and drawing six, whereas scoring in every of the groups’ final 17 head-to-head matches.
Tottenham did, nonetheless, win this precise fixture 2-1 final season, with that match overshadowed by controversy as Jurgen Klopp’s Reds went right down to 9 males following crimson playing cards for Curtis Jones and Diogo Jota.
Luis Diaz, in the meantime, noticed a possible opening purpose chalked off incorrectly by VAR Darren England, which referees’ physique PGMOL later apologised for.
That recreation was determined by a Joel Matip personal purpose in stoppage time, the sixth Ninetieth-minute winner to be scored in Premier League conferences between Tottenham and Liverpool, greater than every other fixture within the competitors’s historical past.
Tottenham might now win back-to-back residence matches towards Liverpool within the Premier League for the primary time since having fun with a run of 5 victories between 2008 and 2012.
Spurs have, although, misplaced 9 of their final 11 Premier League video games towards sides beginning the day high of the desk, with each exceptions coming towards Manchester Metropolis (2-2 in August 2019, 3-2 in February 2022). They’ve misplaced all 5 residence matches on this run.
Can Salah turn out to be Christmas king?
Mohamed Salah has made loads of headlines on and off the sphere this marketing campaign.
With no additional information on a brand new contract for the Egyptian, his glittering spell on Merseyside could possibly be drawing to a detailed. If that’s to be the case, he seems decided to exit on a excessive and has already marked himself out because the excellent candidate for Participant of the Season honours.
Within the Premier League’s 32-year historical past, no participant has ever reached double figures for each objectives and assists in a single season earlier than Christmas Day. With 13 objectives and 9 assists to his title this time period, Salah will make historical past if he tees up a purpose on Sunday.
Salah seems properly on target to realize one of the best inventive marketing campaign of his profession, having by no means beforehand surpassed 13 assists in a single league season (his tally from 2021-22).
Solely Arsenal’s Bukayo Saka (10) has extra assists within the Premier League this time period, although the anticipated assists (xA) knowledge might recommend Salah has benefitted from some glorious ending from his team-mates. Certainly, his complete of three.34 xA this time period has been bettered by 10 Premier League gamers, the likes of Dwight McNeil (3.95), Bryan Mbeumo (3.55) and Youri Tielemans (3.46) amongst them.
Certainly, Salah’s determine of 0.61 assists per 90 minutes in 2024-25 is definitely his greatest in any single Premier League season, however he managed extra xA per 90 in 2023-24 (0.27) and 2021-22 (0.24, in comparison with 0.23 this season).
He has created a mean of 1.84 probabilities per recreation this marketing campaign, which is definitely his third-lowest determine in a Premier League season, his excessive of two.34 coming final time period.
Nonetheless, Salah’s significance to Slot’s successful machine can’t be overstated. Certainly, his 22 purpose involvements within the Premier League this time period account for 71% of Liverpool’s complete purpose tally (31), by far the best share of any participant within the competitors.
One other piece of Premier League historical past might await Salah – the one most essential participant within the competitors – this week.
Leaky backline to value Spurs?
If Ange Postecoglou’s Tottenham needed to be described utilizing one phrase, entertaining would absolutely be one of many first to spring to thoughts. Inconsistent can be one other.
Having completed on the proper facet of Thursday’s seven-goal thriller towards United, during which they nearly squandered a 3-0 lead thanks to 2 Fraser Forster errors, Tottenham have now scored three or extra objectives in 9 totally different video games this season alone.
Solely Chelsea (37) have bettered their 36 Premier League objectives this time period, whereas they rank fourth within the division for anticipated objectives (31.18 xG) and complete pictures (249), and second for pictures on course (97).
Defensively, nonetheless, it has all too usually been a large number. Spurs’ determine of 24.28 anticipated objectives towards (xGA) is the league’s eighth-worst, their opponents producing a higher high quality of probabilities than these allowed by Fifteenth-placed Crystal Palace (22.51) or Sixteenth-placed Everton (20.27).
The excruciating calls for of Tottenham’s excessive press proved pricey in a 4-3 defeat to Chelsea final day trip at residence, and will they stick with an identical method towards Liverpool’s livewire attackers, this could possibly be one other tough outing.
Solely Chelsea (28) have tried extra pictures from quick breaks than Liverpool (23) within the Premier League this marketing campaign, with Salah (10) main the way in which amongst all gamers within the division.
Help for Postecoglou has been on a knife edge recently, with some Spurs followers remonstrating with the Australian within the aftermath of a defeat at Bournemouth, whereas others stay firmly behind the idealistic Australian.
Tottenham should, in any respect prices, keep away from permitting Liverpool to run away with the competition early and create a poisonous ambiance.
At residence, Spurs have solely managed one clear sheet of their final 23 league video games – towards toothless Everton in August. Their present three-match winless run on the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium is their longest within the competitors since December 2013 (a run of 4).
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Tottenham – Son Heung-min
Son had a recreation to recollect towards Southampton final weekend, together with his two assists taking him degree with Darren Anderton because the Spurs participant with probably the most assists in Premier League historical past (68). He will probably be decided to take that honour outright subsequent day trip.
The South Korean additionally netted on the south coast, turning into simply the twentieth participant to attain in a minimum of 100 totally different Premier League matches.
Son wanted 316 appearances within the competitors to take action, that means he achieved the feat faster than gamers together with Teddy Sheringham (329), Nicolas Anelka (331), Robbie Keane (335) and Jermain Defoe (338).
Liverpool – Diogo Jota
Having been despatched off on this precise fixture final season, Jota will probably be on the lookout for revenge towards an opponent he has excelled towards previously.
Jota scored the winner for Wolves on the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium again in March 2020 and has since netted twice in 4 extra league appearances towards Spurs – solely towards Leicester Metropolis, Arsenal (each six) and Southampton (4) has he netted extra Premier League objectives.
He got here off the bench to web Liverpool’s equaliser towards Fulham in a 2-2 draw final week, his eighth league purpose as an alternative choice to the Reds – no participant has extra within the competitors since his Anfield arrival in September 2020.
