MotoGP has formally confirmed the Barcelona circuit because the alternative venue for the normal Valencia finale, which may not happen in 2024 as a consequence of devastating floods within the space.
The alternative race will happen below the title of Motul Solidarity Grand Prix of Barcelona, and the weekend will play host to “varied initiatives to help aid for Valencia”.
Jazzing up a long-shot title battle was after all by no means a major or perhaps a secondary consideration in selecting a alternative venue, however Barcelona’s distinctive traits imply the selection of the monitor does influence the championship image.
Jorge Martin leads Pecco Bagnaia by 24 factors with 37 out there, however would lose any tiebreak – that means he wants 14 factors (both gained all by himself or together with any factors misplaced by Bagnaia) to ensure himself the title.
So does the selection of Barcelona make that activity any much less simple and a surprising final-round upset any extra probably?
Monitor profile
Talking in regards to the state of the title battle on the conclusion of the Malaysian Grand Prix at Sepang, Bagnaia repeatedly emphasised the “tough” nature of the Barcelona monitor.
“In Barcelona all the things can occur. I crashed within the dash race once I was main with [a gap of] one second, attempting to keep away from any errors, and I crashed the identical.
“Two corners in Barcelona are fairly tough, Flip 2 and Flip 5.”
For a lot of the MotoGP grid, that is the archetypical low-grip monitor – resurfaced in 2018 however extremely slippery all the identical.
“It is my favorite place on the earth – however I feel the grip is simply too low,” acknowledged house hero Aleix Espargaro earlier this 12 months.
“It is too low. It is true that I favor low grip than a bumpy monitor, that is for positive. However I feel the [lack of] grip is dramatic, yeah.”
That clearly makes errors – the sort of errors that might overwrite a 24-point title lead – extra probably, albeit the DNF fee hasn’t been outrageously excessive.
And, in one thing that performs in Martin’s favour as an alternative, a low-grip floor that chews by means of the tyres means a lot larger gaps between rivals, significantly within the Sunday race, which is able to additional mitigate threat for him.
Could’s proof
Barcelona is among the three tracks this season the place Ducati suffered a race defeat – with Espargaro selecting up a dash win for Aprilia.
However, as Bagnaia alluded to earlier than, that dash win was solely made doable by him falling off on the ultimate lap, albeit with the caveat that earlier than he did so the likes of Trackhouse Aprilia rider Raul Fernandez and KTM rider Brad Binder had crashed out of the lead, too.
Over the complete 24-lap race on Sunday, Bagnaia and Martin had been 1.7 seconds aside on the chequered flag – however no person else received even inside double-digit seconds of Bagnaia.
Bagnaia’s total report in Barcelona is not superb, however he’s clearly quick there – and ought to be in with a really robust likelihood on the full 37 factors, particularly as beating him on monitor won’t be a precedence for Martin.
However Martin will gladly join the identical pecking order as earlier within the 12 months, and there may be motive to consider his bike – and Bagnaia’s bike – could also be extra dominant nonetheless given how a lot stronger it has been recently in comparison with the beginning of the season.
And okay, KTM has been persistently potent in low-grip situations and may most likely give Martin one thing to fret about, however Aprilia has declined because the season went on.
Bagnaia prompt at Sepang whether or not Martin’s good buddy Espargaro wouldn’t do something to compromise Martin’s title likelihood, however it would possibly nicely not even come to that provided that the RS-GP has not been significantly aggressive as of late.
Inside Ducati
Bagnaia has persistently emphasised that to win this title he’ll need assistance – “assist” as in being quick, versus “assist” within the group order sense – from two riders specifically.
These riders are Marc Marquez and Enea Bastianini, who’re in the midst of their very own battle for third within the championship and have been the one riders to even semi-consistently problem Martin and Bagnaia.
However in that sense, the selection of Barcelona is dangerous, dangerous information for Bagnaia.
As he defined his considerably below-par tempo at Sepang, Marquez mentioned that since his career-changing harm in 2020, for one motive or one other, he has been extra restricted than earlier than at his less-favoured tracks.
“There are two circuits within the calendar that I am struggling quite a bit traditionally,” he mentioned. “Right here and Montmelo [Barcelona].”
And although you’d count on Bastianini to be potent given the tyre-saving calls for of Barcelona, his MotoGP report right here is definitely horrible. He has not been snug on the entrance tyre there, battling the laborious braking zones.
Bastianini’s Valencia report can be typically unimpressive, in order that’s perhaps a lot of a muchness for Bagnaia – however Marquez would have been a a lot larger risk to Martin at Circuit Ricardo Tormo.
Nearly winter
However all of the data we’ve about how MotoGP riders and bikes go in Barcelona include the caveat of Could working.
This will likely be mid-November – preliminary climate forecasts counsel MotoGP will go racing in an air temperature of round 8-10°C decrease than what it had for the race in Could.
“The situations will likely be extra powerful in comparison with June as a result of it’s going to be chilly,” mentioned Bagnaia – however will probably be fascinating to see whether or not, given the masses and put on generated by the Barcelona circuit, colder tyres will really be that a lot of a difficulty.
Mission unattainable?
Martin has scored fewer than the required 14 factors in solely three of the 19 rounds to this point this season.
Bagnaia must outscore him by 24 factors or extra, and that sort of factors swing between the 2 has occurred twice this season – however in each circumstances it was Martin outscoring Bagnaia (by 26 at Portimao and 28 at Aragon), not the opposite means round.
Bagnaia’s likeliest path to a title is 2 Martin errors, or defeating Martin on Saturday and getting an error from him on Sunday. That is nonetheless eminently mathematically doable – it was doable at Valencia and will probably be doable in Barcelona.
However as for the specifics of the circuit, given the 2 title contenders’ Sunday dominance earlier within the season and the struggles of Marquez and Bastianini, a Valencia-to-Barcelona swap really most likely makes a Martin title even likelier than earlier than.
