Coming into the 2025 draft cycle, most scouts and draft shops thought-about Cooper Flagg the clear prime prospect. Many scouts (myself included) think about Flagg a particular prospect, able to creating into an NBA celebrity.
Another prospects, notably Dylan Harper, have crept in direction of the dialog. However I’d argue that Flagg’s begin to the season solely provides confidence to his celebrity projection. Let’s focus on three causes Flagg continues to be the clear prime prospect within the 2025 NBA Draft and among the best prospects on the planet.
Flagg’s excessive utilization is promising for on-ball creation potential
Detractors usually cite Flagg’s poor effectivity; he’s posting a frigid 50.5% true taking pictures to date. Context right here is important, as Flagg’s age (he turns 18 on December twenty first), peak and offensive load all affect this quantity. He’s harbored an infinite 30.4% utilization fee, tied with Dylan Harper for the second-highest of any high-major freshman this season (Jeremiah Fears ranks first).
The overwhelming majority of high-usage school primaries are guards. Flagg represents a transparent outlier right here given his dimension at 6’9. He joins Michael Beasley, DeMarcus Cousins and Vernon Carey Jr as the one 6’9 or taller freshmen since 2008 with utilization charges above 30%. Critically, Flagg is a far superior passing prospect to all three of these gamers.
He’s all the time handed the ball at a excessive degree, flashing NBA-quality traits relationship again to highschool. That playmaking verve translated to the faculty degree instantly, mirrored in his passing numbers — 23.4% help fee, 7.0 assists per 100 possessions and a 1.6 assist-to-turnover ratio.
His playmaking meshing with the immense utilization helps us think about a path for Flagg to command the ball finally on the NBA degree. Since 2008, the one different freshmen taller than 6’8 to publish above 20% help fee, 1.0 assist-to-turnover ratio and a 25% utilization fee had been Ben Simmons and Scottie Barnes. That mixture of excessive offensive duty at a younger age, passing quantity and turnover avoidance is extraordinarily helpful.
Flagg has proven the flexibility to create downhill benefits together with his pace, dimension and explosion, even when his ball management and dribble counters nonetheless want enchancment. That’s the case for nearly all 17-year-old wings, although. Jon Scheyer has requested Flagg to hold his group’s offense in opposition to a few of the finest groups in school basketball and he’s answered the bell, all issues thought-about.
His taking pictures projection is powerful
Projecting taking pictures to the NBA degree is without doubt one of the most difficult points of scouting. Many prospects, particularly freshmen, don’t have anything near a secure 3-point taking pictures pattern. Cooper Flagg has made 24.4% of his threes to date, however that’s on simply 41 makes an attempt. If, for instance, 5 of these misses went in, Flagg’s 3-point share would spike to 36.6%.
Including his remaining highschool and AAU season to Flagg’s school begin paints a clearer image of his taking pictures skill — 33.2% (83-250) on all 3-pointers with related effectivity off the dribble and off the catch. Which may not seem stellar, however most youngsters, particularly ones as tall as Flagg, aren’t environment friendly shooters. Anthony Edwards, Jaylen Brown, Marcus Sensible, Buddy Hield, Donovan Mitchell and Tyrese Maxey all shot under 30% from past the arc as school freshmen.
Flagg’s taking pictures indicators, notably his free throw share and quantity, are strong. He’s taking pictures 76.3% (45-59) from the road this yr. Including that to his highschool and EYBL free-throw taking pictures, we arrive at 83.3% (299-359). He’s taking 7.1 3-point makes an attempt per 100 possessions.
I’d like to see him improve that quantity to eight.0 or 9.0 to really feel much more assured in his taking pictures projection given the worth of quantity. His shot range, flashing off-dribble and off-movement taking pictures, add to Flagg’s encouraging taking pictures projection. Flagg creating right into a high-level shooter would clear and widen his star paths.
He’s an elite defensive prospect
Mainstream scouting evaluation has by no means valued protection as a lot as I really feel they need to. Measuring and evaluating protection will be difficult, particularly as in comparison with offense, given the relative lack of defensive statistics. Flagg’s steal and block numbers, although, are stellar, posting a 5.1% block fee and a 3.1% steal fee thus far. The one different freshmen since 2008 to match these numbers had been Zion Williamson, Nerlens Noel, Tari Eason and Andre Roberson.
cooper flagg’s 5.1% block fee and three.1% steal fee thus far makes him considered one of 5 drafted freshmen since 2008 to satisfy these benchmarks
the ridiculous vary, versatility and shot blocking have instantly translated to excessive degree ball pic.twitter.com/xZN96mSwNH
— ben pfeifer (@bjpf_) December 18, 2024
Flagg covers monumental areas of floor as a weak-side shot blocker and jumps passing lanes for simple transition possibilities. His on-ball protection has been stellar, sliding and mirroring even smaller gamers together with his lateral quickness and dimension. He nonetheless profiles because the sort of defensive prospect who can problem for Defensive Participant of the 12 months Trophies in due time.
That’s an extremely helpful commodity, one thing NBA groups can undervalue at instances. Even with out discussing his offensive potential, Flagg’s protection raises his flooring to a ridiculously excessive baseline.
