Dorna Sports activities deserves numerous credit score for the truth that, as scheduled, the ultimate spherical of the 2024 MotoGP season shall be held on the 15-17 November weekend.
The devastating floods which swept by way of Valencia only a few weeks in the past firmly put MotoGP because the least vital consideration of the scenario. However Dorna calmly and effectively put collectively an answer to stage a race in Barcelona as a substitute, conserving the championship schedule on observe and making certain a remaining showdown between Jorge Martin and Francesco Bagnaia can unfold.
The Solidarity GP of Barcelona is a touching nod to the individuals of Valencia, with MotoGP set to motion quite a lot of initiatives to assist increase cash for the flood reduction effort.
However solidarity is one thing seldom present in MotoGP, not least when the last word prize in motorbike racing is on the road. Martin leads Bagnaia by 24 factors, and must outscore his rival by two – which he may properly do within the dash race – to convey the title house to Spain.
The maths is stacked in Martin’s favour. Bagnaia has no selection however to exit and attempt to win each races. However with eight DNFs hanging over him – one in every of which a crash out of the lead of the final lap of the Catalan GP dash at Barcelona again in Might – just like the Sword of Damocles, it’s one other benefit in Martin’s favour.
Ducati has additionally engineered a scenario the place it has all however left Bagnaia with none actual wingmen to assist.
Its U-turn on selling Martin to its manufacturing unit group for 2025 in favour of Marc Marquez, which occurred only a few days after the Catalan GP, and the ensuing ousting of Enea Bastianini from his seat leaves little cause for the Italian to face up for the marque that gave him the chilly shoulder. Perhaps it could possibly persuade him with a tidy bonus for compliance, however that thought will exit the window if a grand prix win is staring him within the face.
Franco Morbidelli is sat between a rock and a tough place as a Pramac consultant and a VR46 Academy member, albeit one who has performed little half within the lead battle this yr on his GP24 anyway.
The getting old GP23s having paled in type because the second half of the yr has gone on, leaving VR46 ally Marco Bezzecchi considerably helpless to assist Bagnaia, whereas Alex Marquez and Michele Pirro (Fabio Di Giannantonio’s alternative for the weekend at VR46) are in the identical place.
Bagnaia has stood in opposition to the thought of manufacturing unit orders, which Ducati group supervisor Davide Tardozzi confirmed previous to the Malaysian GP it will quantity to not more than this easy message to the Bologna-based marque’s steady: “Don’t do silly issues.”
The reigning double world champion has additionally caught along with his ideas of equity, electing in opposition to slowing up the tempo within the Malaysian GP to convey Marquez and Bastianini into play to probably take extra factors off Martin. It’s a valiant stance and speaks to Bagnaia’s character, although maybe it additionally exhibits a scarcity of ruthlessness that shall be examined in 2025…
Along with his again in opposition to the wall, possibly Bagnaia will change tact at Barcelona. He already mentioned after the Sepang race that he’ll look to supply as many riders a tow as he can all through the ultimate spherical to get some machines between himself and Martin. That mentioned, such has been the type of the championship’s high two of late that anybody courageous sufficient to hook onto Bagnaia shall be operating the gravel entice gauntlet.
The one rider over the course of the yr who has constantly been ready to take action has been Marc Marquez. Earlier than crashing out of the Sepang GP, he was operating with the highest two on a GP23 that could be a step behind even the place it was in Might’s Barcelona go to when Marquez got here by way of from 14th on the grid to the rostrum in each races.
The GP24 runners have famous in the previous few months that the GP23 appears to have higher traction. On the low-grip Barcelona circuit, that might show a vital level in Marquez’s quest to attain one remaining race win in 2024 and likewise safe third within the standings.
Certainly, whereas all eyes are on the championship battle, the struggle for third between Marquez and Bastianini – GP23 vs GP24, Ducati’s future vs Ducati’s previous – is break up by only a single level forward of this weekend and can go all the way in which to the grand prix.
When requested by Crash.web’s MotoGP Editor Peter McLaren on the Malaysian GP if he would like yet another win or third within the standings, Marquez’s reply was emphatically for the previous. Publicly, he doesn’t care about remaining championship standings. This season hasn’t been about that for the Gresini rider.
Ducati would naturally want it to avoid wasting a little bit of pleasure; its 2025 manufacturing unit line-up ending second to the present manufacturing unit steady it’s eliminating shall be a degree of rivalry inside administration workplaces over an uncomfortable winter because it retains fingers tightly crossed that its imaginative and prescient for subsequent yr does repay.
But when Marquez’s sole focus is yet another win, that makes him a probably harmful prospect for each Martin and Bagnaia – and likewise a potential ally for each.
The topic of ‘interference’ has been broached quite a lot of occasions over the previous couple of months, because the ghosts of 2015 nonetheless hang-out the recollections of some. Talking forward of the Thai GP, having the week earlier than taken 5 factors away from Martin within the Australian GP by beating him after a tough late battle, Marquez mentioned: “Even in 2015 I used to be not within the center and I theoretically took factors from someone. You by no means know. You can’t management this stuff. I’ll do my 100%.”
It’s value noting that the 5 additional factors in Australia Martin may have gained over Bagnaia would have his championship lead out to 29 coming to the finale. Had he not crashed out of second within the Thai GP, Bagnaia could be 4 factors nearer to Martin – and, because the latter identified, he solely stayed on his GP24 himself as a result of Marquez’s fall allowed him to anticipate his personal entrance finish second.
Final yr, Marquez – when on the Honda – elected to not struggle Martin on the Qatar GP laborious for tenth place as a result of he wasn’t a part of the title battle and didn’t wish to take factors away from him. In Thailand this yr, his makes an attempt at overtaking Bagnaia for the lead have been performed cleanly. As an eight-time world champion, he understands the scenario Martin and Bagnaia face, and with nothing to contribute he received’t take any pointless dangers.
That mentioned, Australia proved that when he has the tempo – no matter who he’s racing – he’ll go for it. Once more, his racing with Martin was clear at Phillip Island. Ought to the same scenario come up at Barcelona, Marquez will function as he has already performed.
How that finally ends up impacting Martin and Bagnaia is of little consequence, although. And being the chaser, Bagnaia is the one prone to be hit more durable by this than Martin given the factors distinction. Martin can afford to lose a couple of factors to his rival as long as he stays inside the threshold to win the title; Bagnaia can not.
As a future team-mate to Bagnaia, some think about Marquez because the one to play the tailgunner function. However whereas Marquez received’t do something foolish, it might be naive to suppose there could be such compliance from the 31-year-old.
He’s already gotten what he desires out of Ducati, forcing it to point out simply how vital he was to its plans by utterly destroying the equilibrium it had created. It’s shedding Martin to Aprilia, Pramac to Yamaha, Bastianini to KTM and Marco Bezzecchi to Aprilia, whereas it is going to have solely three GP25s on the grid subsequent yr.
Marquez doesn’t want to think about managerial needs after such a devastating powerplay. Going about his enterprise as common in Barcelona to the unwitting detriment of Bagnaia’s title hopes (and, actually, the present primary should lay blame on the ft of his eight DNFs if he does lose) would even have the added bonus for Marquez of moving into the manufacturing unit Ducati group not being paired with the reigning champion.
His refusal to affix Pramac and Ducati senior administration’s fears of shedding him already proved that Bagnaia’s place inside the producer isn’t as robust accurately for its most profitable rider ever in MotoGP. Bagnaia dealing with 2025 having misplaced the title and with Marquez now in his home solely works within the latter’s favour.
Marquez received’t be coopted into any assist function on the Solidarity GP, nor will he doing something reckless in favour of 1 title challenger or the opposite. However there are many causes for him to be a significant factor within the final result of the 2024 MotoGP World Championship…
