MotoGP’s 2024 season finale will mark the third successive time that the premier-class title battle is determined within the final spherical of the marketing campaign.
However like in 2022 and 2023, the championship chief has a major benefit over their sole adversary – although on this case Pecco Bagnaia is now within the position of the hunter slightly than the hunted.
Bagnaia’s win within the Malaysian Grand Prix did not offset his fall within the dash, and means he trails Jorge Martin by 24 factors.
Solely 37 factors can be found within the season finale – moved to Barcelona because of the excessive flooding in Valencia – in two weeks’ time.
Bagnaia would win the championship if he finishes stage on factors with Martin, as grand prix outcomes are the primary tiebreaker and Bagnaia has 10 grand prix wins this yr to Martin’s three.
However it nonetheless means Martin solely wants 14 factors to clinch his first-ever MotoGP title – and he could not even want that many.
HOW MARTIN CAN BE CHAMPION IN BARCELONA SPRINT
A win within the Saturday dash race at Barcelona will assure Martin the 2024 crown by advantage of giving him 12 factors and taking at the least three away from Bagnaia.
Inserting second with Bagnaia third would even be sufficient for Martin.
But when Martin is wherever between third and eighth, he would want Bagnaia to complete two locations behind him or worse to keep away from taking the title struggle into the ultimate day.
Martin ending ninth or decrease within the dash would assure it goes on to the Sunday race.
HOW MARTIN CAN BE CHAMPION IN BARCELONA GP RACE
No matter what occurs within the dash, a podium end on Sunday for Martin would assure him ending the weekend as champion.
However his goal end for Sunday, assuming he would not wrap it up on Saturday, will seemingly be significantly decrease until his dash goes actually incorrect.
In a season dominated by Ducati GP24s, Martin has been on the rostrum in all however two grands prix he is completed this season. He was fourth at Austin and fifteenth at Misano after wrongly pitting for moist tyres.
THE PICTURE FOR BARCELONA
MotoGP already visited Barcelona for a 2024 spherical again in Might, and Bagnaia ought to’ve taken all 37 factors then – however crashed out from the lead whereas beneath no actual strain on the ultimate lap of the dash.
He’ll seemingly head into Barcelona as a robust favorite to win – however by such a margin that it’s really more likely to his detriment.
Of the non-Ducati bikes that might get entangled and maybe take factors off Martin, Aprilia has been historically a potent pressure at Barcelona however is in the midst of a critical late-season droop. KTM, although, did get a robust spherical in Might from Pedro Acosta.
However the two riders that Bagnaia would most count on assist from – team-mate Enea Bastianini and future team-mate Marc Marquez – are each hardly Barcelona specialists. Marquez personally considers it amongst his two worst tracks in MotoGP (with Sepang), whereas for Bastianini it could be his worst.
Martin completed this yr’s Catalan GP 1.7s off winner Bagnaia – and almost 9 seconds forward of third place.
