England know a win, however extra importantly, a efficiency is required after they face Slovenia in Cologne on Tuesday.
The Three Lions squandered the chance to safe qualification to the knockout phases of Euro 2024 after a lacklustre show in opposition to Denmark final trip.
Harry Kane’s 18th-minute opener had given Gareth Southgate’s aspect an early benefit however, very similar to of their opening 1-0 win in opposition to Serbia, England then did not capitalise on an early lead.
This time they had been punished on Thursday when Morten Hjulmand’s effort from distance levelled proceedings, with Denmark maybe unlucky to not declare all three factors.
Many concerned with England have already acknowledged they have to enhance and alterations are anticipated in an try to construct momentum heading into the final 16, ought to they get there.
Right here, we use Opta information to preview the Three Lions’ closing Group C conflict.
Sights set on Slovenia
Shot on Google Pixel. pic.twitter.com/SaQRzYaojz
— England (@England) June 23, 2024
What’s anticipated?
England are anticipated to win and high Group C, with the Opta supercomputer handing them a dominant 75.5% likelihood of getting the job carried out in Cologne.
Slovenia are predicted a meagre 10.4% probability of claiming a maiden triumph in opposition to their opponents in the identical data-led simulations, with a draw forecast barely greater at 14.1%.
This will probably be solely England and Slovenia’s second encounter at a significant event, with the Three Lions successful 1-0 within the group phases of the 2010 World Cup, however Southgate’s males have a nice file on this assembly.
Slovenia have did not win any of their six matches in opposition to England throughout all competitions (D1 L5). Greece and fellow Group C aspect Denmark are the one opponents they’ve confronted on extra events (seven) with out ever successful a single match.
But Matjaz Kek could fancy an upset right here because the usually resolute England defence has come below fireplace at Euro 2024. The Three Lions have confronted 5 extra photographs than they’ve tried in Germany (17 photographs, 22 confronted).
They’ve did not have extra makes an attempt than their opponents in 5 of their final seven Euros group phases (1992, 2000, 2004, 2012, 2020), one thing that hasn’t occurred in any of their final seven World Cup group stage appearances between 1998 and 2022.
England are additionally averaging simply 8.9 photographs per sport on the Euros below Southgate (80 in 9 video games). Going into Matchday 3, that’s the lowest photographs per sport any nation has had below a supervisor to take cost of them in additional than 5 matches on the European Championship on file (since 1980).
Southgate will probably be determined for his aspect to rediscover the artistic spark that a few of their star gamers have discovered really easy to muster with their golf equipment.
Modifications anticipated for England, however who will Southgate flip to?
With a plethora of attacking expertise, the appropriate mix of expertise and youth, together with gamers picked to journey to Germany based mostly on present kind, England arrived at Euro 2024 among the many favourites to win the event.
Nevertheless, any type of cohesion and fluidity is but to transpire for Southgate’s aspect as jeers echoed across the Frankfurt Enviornment from the travelling contingent after their underwhelming show in opposition to Denmark.
Kane, who scored 44 objectives in all competitions in his debut 2023-24 season for Bayern Munich, had the least touches (22) of any England participant who began the sport on Thursday, whereas additionally managing only one contact within the Danes’ penalty space.
England’s attacking quartet of Bukayo Saka, Phil Foden, Jude Bellingham and Kane managed 114 objectives between them in all competitions final season, but Southgate’s males managed simply two photographs on course, forcing the Three Lions boss right into a triple change with 20 minutes to go.
Eberechi Eze, Jarrod Bowen, and Ollie Watkins had been launched however created only one alternative of notice. In the meantime, Anthony Gordon and Cole Palmer are nonetheless but to make an look within the event, regardless of combining for 33 Premier League objectives for Newcastle United and Chelsea respectively final time period.
Regardless of creating extra probabilities (three) and taking part in extra line-breaking passes within the closing third (5) in opposition to Denmark, it appears to be like possible that Trent Alexander-Arnold’s time in midfield may very well be up, nevertheless it stays to be seen who will exchange him.
Chelsea’s Conor Gallagher has changed him in England’s final two video games, however solely accomplished 82.4% of his 17 passes in opposition to Denmark, additionally amassing a yellow card for his troubles.
Kobbie Mainoo and Adam Wharton are doable replacements and have proven within the Premier League they’re greater than able to stepping up, but an look alongside Declan Rice in midfield would mark each’s first function at a significant event.
All or nothing for Slovenia
Slovenia know they have to obtain the unlikely to maintain their Euro 2024 journey alive, with their confidence taking successful after coming inches away from securing a maiden success on the European Championships.
Luka Jovic’s leveller in Thursday’s 1-1 draw with Serbia marked the most recent result-altering objective in a Euros match of all-time (excluding extra-time), along with his equaliser timed at precisely 95 minutes.
That late heartbreak leaves Slovenia winless throughout 5 matches at UEFA’s flagship worldwide event (D4 L1).
It had began effectively for Kek’s aspect when Zan Karnicnik netted his second worldwide objective, however Slovenia succumbed to a well-known destiny.
Their opener was solely the second time they’d gone forward in a sport on the finals, with the opposite occasion coming in opposition to Yugoslavia at Euro 2000 when Slovenia led 3-0 earlier than collapsing to a 3-3 draw.
Benjamin Sesko confirmed the best promise for Slovenia, having the joint-most photographs (two) and photographs on course (one) for his aspect, however was free in possession, ending the sport with a move accuracy of 55.8% – the second-lowest within the crew.
But there may be nonetheless hope for Kek as Slovenia are unbeaten of their final eight video games in all competitions (W4 D4), solely having fun with an extended such run as soon as in historical past (9 video games between September 2020 and March 2021).
#SrceBije #EURO2024 pic.twitter.com/6F9fCrOnZF
— NZS | FA Slovenia (@nzs_si) June 22, 2024
PLAYERS TO WATCH
England – Harry Kane
Whereas a lot was fabricated from Kane’s efficiency in opposition to Denmark, there isn’t a denying the standard he affords the Three Lions in and across the penalty space.
The Bayern Munich striker has solely managed two touches within the opposition field at Euro 2024 to this point, the identical whole as each Kyle Walker and Alexander-Arnold.
But Kane nonetheless scored his fifth objective in his final six appearances on the event, with solely Wayne Rooney (six) and Alan Shearer (seven) managing extra Euros objectives for England.
22 touches, 1 within the Denmark Field. pic.twitter.com/wr2CTn5EpD
— Opta Analyst (@OptaAnalyst) June 20, 2024
Slovenia – Petar Stojanovic
With England anticipated to dominate possession on Tuesday, Slovenia’s defence must be at their greatest to provide them any likelihood of getting one thing from the sport.
Proper-back Petar Stojanovic received possession 11 occasions in opposition to Serbia, with solely Ales Ceh at Euro 2000 in opposition to Spain (14) managing to win the ball again extra usually for Slovenia in a significant event sport.
