A pageant of soccer is about to kick off in america, because the Copa America sparks into motion.
Argentina, the reigning champions, get the ball rolling after they face Canada within the opening Group A match, and Lionel Messi would be the predominant man as ever for La Albiceleste.
Messi was the joint-leading scorer on the 2021 Copa America, netting 4 targets to steer the standings alongside Colombia’s Luis Diaz.
The Barcelona nice is predicted to be proper up there once more with regards to the 2024 Copa America Golden Boot race, and right here, we dive into the principle candidates for that award.
Lionel Messi
Not solely did Messi end as joint-top scorer on the 2021 Copa, he was additionally the main assister after which, 18 months later, he went on to steer Argentina to World Cup glory, scoring seven targets within the course of, from 6.6 anticipated targets – solely Kylian Mbappe (eight) netted extra instances in Qatar.
As quickly as he options for Argentina at this event, Messi will develop into the Copa America’s all-time file holder for appearances – he’s tied with Chile nice Sergio Livingstone on 34, because it stands.
Messi has scored 13 Copa America targets, which places him joint-seventh on the all-time record, alongside fellow Argentina nice Gabriel Batistuta. If he is ready to replicate his 4 targets from the 2021 version, then Messi will be a part of Norberto Mendez and Zizinho on the prime of the all-time charts – that’s until Peru’s Paolo Guerrero and/or Chile’s Eduardo Vargas have been to web at the least 4 instances every to set a brand new file.
For the reason that begin of the 2011 Copa, Messi has had 102 pictures – greater than another participant. Surprisingly, his conversion charge stands at simply 10.78 per cent, which stands because the second-lowest out of any participant to have netted at the least 5 targets within the competitors in that point.
However there will be no doubting Messi’s genius, and the little magician is coming into what’s going to absolutely be his remaining Copa in superb kind – he has scored 12 targets in MLS for Inter Miami this season, outperforming his 8.3 xG and averaging a aim each 86 minutes.
Argentina are the Opta supercomputer’s favourites to win the Copa, and group matches towards Canada, Chile and Peru present Messi with a beneficial leaping off level to win the Golden Boot once more.
Vinicius Junior
Contemporary from successful the Champions League with Actual Madrid (and scoring within the remaining – once more), Vinicius heads into the Copa America as Brazil’s talisman.
With Neymar absent via harm, the onus will fall on the winger to offer the artistic spark and scientific edge to tug what appears to be like like a extra dogged, workmanlike squad via to the latter levels – Brazil are, in line with our mannequin, second favourites behind Argentina, with a 23 per cent win chance.
If the Selecao are to problem the holders, then they want Vinicius in prime kind.
Whereas he performed as a split-striker for Madrid this season as Carlo Ancelotti discovered a option to get the most effective out of Jude Bellingham, Vinicius is extra more likely to play broad left for his nation, although his reducing runs from out-to-in will make him a relentless risk, so long as the likes of Bruno Guimaraes and Lucas Paqueta can choose him out.
Vinicius netted 24 instances for Los Blancos in 2023-24, and tried 286 dribbles – 10 greater than another participant in Europe’s prime 5 leagues throughout all competitions. He averaged 8.4 take-on makes an attempt per 90, a tally bettered by solely Jeremy Doku, whereas Vinicius additionally boasts a dribble completion charge of three.3 per 90.
He’s but to attain on the Copa America, nonetheless. That being stated, he didn’t make a single begin in 2021, with all 4 of his appearances coming in its place, having just one shot and finishing solely one among his seven dribbles. However such has been his stellar kind below Ancelotti within the intervening three years, there isn’t any doubting he’s now Brazil’s predominant man.
Brazil face Costa Rica, Paraguay and in-form Colombia in Group D, however none of these defences ought to strike worry into Vinicius.
Luis Diaz
Diaz loved an outstanding marketing campaign three years in the past, scoring two absolute screamers – one got here within the group stage, an overhead kick towards Brazil, whereas the opposite got here within the third-place play-off as Colombia beat Peru; it was a stunner from outdoors the world, with the then-Porto winger lashing into the top-right nook after skipping in from the flank and taking up a number of defenders.
Certainly, the standard of Diaz’s finishes are proven by his xG in 2021, which was simply 1.0. And Diaz’s wonderful capturing at that version is additional evidenced by his anticipated targets heading in the right direction (xGoT) determine of two.2.
Diaz had solely 10 pictures, 18 fewer than Messi, but boasted a massively spectacular 40 per cent shot conversion charge. Solely Messi (57) and Neymar (77), in the meantime, tried extra dribbles than Diaz (43) on the 2021 version, whereas it was simply that celebrity duo that accomplished extra dribbles, too (Neymar 35, Messi 34, Diaz 26).
His performances at that event piqued the curiosity of Premier League sides, and Diaz subsequently moved to Liverpool in January 2022. So whereas he won’t be fairly the unknown amount that he was three years in the past, if he’s at his finest, he’ll nonetheless be massively tough to cease – particularly with James Rodriguez pulling the strings behind him.
Darwin Nunez
Bookending this record of the highest Golden Boot contenders is Uruguay’s Darwin Nunez. The Liverpool striker has been excellent below Marcelo Bielsa, and appears to be El Loco’s predominant attacker, even with Luis Suarez within the squad.
Nunez scored 11 Premier League targets for the Reds in 2023-24, however underperformed his xG (16.4) by 5.4. Whereas he was unlucky in a way – he hit the woodwork on 9 events, 4 extra instances than another participant – he was additionally erratic in his ending, together with his xGoT dropping to fifteen.5. Nunez additionally missed 14 huge possibilities, which ranked behind solely Manchester Metropolis’s Erling Haaland (34).
The 24-year-old might by no means be ultra-clinical, (he had a shot conversion charge of 10.2 per cent within the Premier League within the season simply gone) however his tempo, tenacity and work charge make him the best Bielsa folly up prime.
Nunez scored a hat-trick in Uruguay’s 4-0 demolition of Mexico earlier in June, whereas he’s the main goalscorer in CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying, with 5 to his identify.
Uruguay head into the event in superb fettle, and Bielsa will at all times be keen to danger all of it in assault – which means loads of alternatives ought to come Nunez’s method.
They’re in a gaggle with the hosts USA, Panama and Bolivia – the worst-ranked crew within the event – so Nunez needs to be aiming to make a dent early on.
Different contenders
Lautaro Martinez
Martinez has had an excellent season for Inter, who he led to the Scudetto whereas ending as prime scorer in Serie A, scoring 24 targets in 33 appearances, and comfortably outperforming his 17.6 xG.
Nonetheless, he has not netted for Argentina in 2026 World Cup qualifying, and isn’t an everyday starter below Lionel Scaloni, so possibilities will not be of a premium for him. That being stated, he did rating twice in Argentina’s 4-1 win over Guatemala on Friday.
Endrick
Boy marvel Endrick, who will hyperlink up with Vinicius, Bellingham and Kylian Mbappe at Actual Madrid subsequent season, has scored three targets for Brazil in his final three appearances.
He scored these in successive matches, although he was unable to develop into the primary Selecao participant since Neymar in 2021 to web in 4 consecutive video games as Dorival Junior’s crew drew 1-1 with the USA in a warm-up match. At 17, Endrick appears to be like like a celebrity within the making, and he might be an out of doors guess for the Golden Boot.
Luis Suarez
Uruguay’s all-time main scorer Suarez is bang in kind heading into this event. The veteran has 68 targets in 138 caps and has netted 12 instances already for Miami in MLS this season, averaging a aim each 96 minutes.
Of gamers to attain at the least 5 instances in MLS in 2024, Suarez has the fourth-highest shot conversion charge, too (33.33 per cent). Uruguay are ranked because the third-favourites by the Opta supercomputer, so Suarez may have loads of matches so as to add to his worldwide targets tally.
Christian Pulisic
The USA can’t discover a lot consistency below Gregg Berhalter, although they did draw 1-1 with Brazil in a pleasant on June 13. If the hosts are to make a critical run, then they might want to channel via Pulisic.
Whereas he’s extra more likely to act as a creator, the attacker has proved he’s greater than able to placing away possibilities. He scored 15 targets for Milan in 2023-24, making it the most effective goalscoring marketing campaign of his profession.
